Week 4 results — 16 games
69%
straight up
6.6
model error
7.3
market error
79%
vs the line
56%
over/under
Double-weight games on the pick sheet: Bears at Packers and Raiders at Patriots — the two largest disagreements with the market, worth two points each on the sheet.
Thu 5:15 PM PTtotal 48.5 · model 46.4
BuccaneersatCowboys
Market
DAL −9.5
My model
DAL −5.4
Final
TB by 8
TB 24 – DAL 16
Model vs market gap4.1 pts
Real disagreement with the market.
Model missed by 13.4, market by 17.5 — model closer · model side covered · 40 points vs total 48.5 / model 46.4
line moved 1.0 toward TB since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Sun 6:30 AM PTtotal 41.5 · model 39.6
EaglesatJaguars
Market
JAX −7.5
My model
JAX −8.5
Final
JAX by 2
PHI 17 – JAX 19
Model vs market gap1.0 pts
Model and market agree. Coin flip.
Model missed by 6.5, market by 5.5 — market closer · model side lost · 36 points vs total 41.5 / model 39.6
line moved 4.2 toward JAX since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 45.5 · model 45.3
BearsatPackers
Market
CHI −2.5
My model×2
GB −3.7
Final
GB by 24
CHI 7 – GB 31
Model vs market gap6.2 pts
Biggest disagreement on the board — usually the model missing news.
Model missed by 20.3, market by 26.5 — model closer · model side covered · 38 points vs total 45.5 / model 45.3
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 42.5 · model 46.5
BengalsatDolphins
Market
CIN −6.5
My model
CIN −4.3
Final
CIN by 7
CIN 31 – MIA 24
Model vs market gap2.2 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
Model missed by 2.7, market by 0.5 — market closer · model side lost · 55 points vs total 42.5 / model 46.5
reverse line movement: 72% of tickets on CIN, but the number moved 1.0 toward MIA. Backing the move covered 57.9% (n=159) -- though 51% in the season with the most games, so it is a flag, not a bet
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 45.5 · model 47.5
RaidersatPatriots
Market
NE −3.5
My model×2
NE −8.4
Final
NE by 28
LV 17 – NE 45
Model vs market gap4.9 pts
Real disagreement with the market.
Model missed by 19.6, market by 24.5 — model closer · model side covered · 62 points vs total 45.5 / model 47.5
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 41.5 · model 47.2
VikingsatSaints
Market
MIN −2.5
My model
MIN −2.7
Final
MIN by 10
MIN 23 – NO 13
Model vs market gap0.2 pts
Model and market agree. Coin flip.
Model missed by 7.3, market by 7.5 — model closer · model side covered · 36 points vs total 41.5 / model 47.2
line moved 1.0 toward MIN since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 39.5 · model 46.1
BrownsatJets
Market
NYJ −2.5
My model
NYJ −0.2
Final
NYJ by 5
CLE 12 – NYJ 17
Model vs market gap2.3 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
Model missed by 4.8, market by 2.5 — market closer · model side lost · 29 points vs total 39.5 / model 46.1
line moved 1.0 toward NYJ since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 44.5 · model 46.5
ColtsatSteelers
Market
PIT −2.5
My model
PIT −1.7
Final
PIT by 12
IND 22 – PIT 34
Model vs market gap0.8 pts
Model and market agree. Coin flip.
Model missed by 10.3, market by 9.5 — market closer · model side lost · 56 points vs total 44.5 / model 46.5
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 37.5 · model 44.8
TexansatTitans
Market
HOU −7.5
My model
HOU −5.7
Final
HOU by 23
HOU 26 – TEN 3
Model vs market gap1.8 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
Model missed by 17.3, market by 15.5 — market closer · model side lost · 29 points vs total 37.5 / model 44.8
line moved 1.0 toward HOU since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Sun 10:00 AM PTtotal 41.5 · model 44.0
GiantsatCommanders
Market
WAS −3.5
My model
WAS −3.6
Final
Tie
NYG 27 – WAS 27
Model vs market gap0.1 pts
Model and market agree. Coin flip.
Model missed by 3.6, market by 3.5 — market closer · model side lost · 54 points vs total 41.5 / model 44.0
reverse line movement: 61% of tickets on NYG, but the number moved 1.0 toward WAS. Backing the move covered 57.9% (n=159) -- though 51% in the season with the most games, so it is a flag, not a bet
Sun 1:05 PM PTtotal 41.5 · model 47.3
BroncosatChargers
Market
DEN −3.5
My model
DEN −1.7
Model vs market gap1.8 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
Sun 1:25 PM PTtotal 54.5 · model 47.6
LionsatCardinals
Market
DET −5.5
My model
DET −3.9
Model vs market gap1.6 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
75% of tickets on the over -- the over hit 46.0% (n=113) in that bucket
Sun 1:25 PM PTtotal 45.5 · model 45.8
49ersatSeahawks
Market
SEA −3.0
My model
SEA −0.5
Model vs market gap2.5 pts
Slight lean, inside the model's error bar.
Sun 5:20 PM PTtotal 43.5 · model 42.7
RavensatFalcons
Market
ATL −3.0
My model
ATL −0.3
Model vs market gap2.7 pts
Real disagreement with the market.
line moved 7.2 toward ATL since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
Mon 5:15 PM PTtotal 54.5 · model 47.8
BillsatRams
Market
LA −3.0
My model
LA −3.6
Model vs market gap0.6 pts
Model and market agree. Coin flip.
line moved 1.0 toward LA since the opener -- movement alone covered 53.4% (n=788), inside the noise
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