CAR @ GB
Thu 5:15 PM PT
model GB by 4.3 line GB -3.5 GB -3.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTFinal: Green Bay 27, Carolina 19. Green Bay covered the 3.5.
FACTJordan Love went 30 of 41 for 288 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Chuba Hubbard ran 22 times for 81 yards and a touchdown. Christian Watson caught eight for 113 and said afterwards he broke a rib.
FACTGreen Bay played without Micah Parsons (knee), who is targeting a Week 12 return.
BAL @ BUF
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model BUF by 5.8 line BUF -3 BUF -3 — DOUBLE, edge 2.8
FACTLamar Jackson (ankle) returns after a three-game absence; Jesse Minter confirmed Friday he will play. Tyler Huntley, who started Week 7, is the backup. The model's number already assumes Jackson.
FACTRe-run with Huntley instead, the model would have Buffalo by 7.6, so Jackson's return shrinks the edge rather than creating it.
FACTBuffalo listed WR DJ Moore (shoulder), TE Dalton Kincaid (chest) and RT Spencer Brown (back) as questionable. Moore has not played since Week 4.
FACTBaltimore ruled out G Olaivavega Ioane (knee) and S Jaylinn Hawkins (knee).
UNKNOWNHow much an ankle that Jackson calls "bearable" limits his running. That is the part of his game the model does not price separately.
READThe double does not depend on Baltimore's quarterback being hurt, which is the healthier kind of edge. What it does depend on is Buffalo's pass game, and two of its targets are questionable. If Moore and Kincaid both sit, the number is still there and the support behind it is thinner.
TEN @ CIN
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model CIN by 12.7 line CIN -12.5 CIN -12.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTThe sheet filed Wednesday has CIN -10.5. The line has moved two points since, and at 12.5 the model sits two tenths off it.
FACTTennessee ruled out RB Tyjae Spears (knee), WR Carnell Tate (shoulder) and P Tommy Townsend (knee). WR Calvin Ridley (hip) is questionable. Tony Pollard had 25 carries on 75% of the snaps in Week 7.
FACTJoe Burrow threw four touchdowns in Cincinnati's 35-13 win at Baltimore in Week 7.
READThe market moved to where the model already was. There is no opinion left in this number.
ARI @ DAL
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model DAL by 5.8 line DAL -7 ARI +7 — edge 1.2, inside the model's error bar
FACTDallas ruled out WR KaVontae Turpin (ribs) and LB Dee Winters (calf). WR George Pickens (shoulder/hamstring) and DT Kenny Clark (back) are questionable.
FACTArizona ruled out G Jon Gaines II (ankle) and DT Walter Nolen III (ankle). Jacoby Brissett started Week 7. Trey McBride drew 13 targets on 93% of the snaps.
READPickens being questionable is the one thing here that would help my side, and it is a Sunday-morning question. The edge is small either way.
MIN @ DET
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model DET by 2.8 line DET -3 MIN +3 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTThe sheet filed Wednesday has DET -3. On Saturday's number the model sits two tenths short of three, so the side has tipped to Minnesota. Neither one is an opinion.
FACTDetroit ruled out S Kerby Joseph (knee); CB Roger McCreary (foot) is questionable. Jahmyr Gibbs had 29 carries and 6 targets on 90% of the snaps in Week 7.
FACTMinnesota is 6-0. Kyler Murray started Week 7, and Justin Jefferson drew 7 targets on 93% of the snaps in Week 7.
READThis is what a coin flip looks like when the line sits on three: a tenth of a point decides the side. Do not read anything into the flip.
IND @ JAX
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model JAX by 9.6 line JAX -10 IND +10 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTShane Steichen said Daniel Jones remains Indianapolis's starter.
FACTIndianapolis ruled out WR Anthony Gould (concussion) and CB Justin Walley (knee); TE Drew Ogletree (knee) is questionable.
FACTJacksonville ruled out S Antonio Johnson (ankle); WR Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) is questionable. The Jaguars are coming off their bye.
READFour tenths of a point on a ten-point line. No opinion.
LV @ NYJ
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model NYJ by 2.2 line NYJ -1.5 NYJ -1.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTKlint Kubiak said Kirk Cousins stays Las Vegas's starter.
FACTThe Jets ruled out OT Max Mitchell (concussion), DT T'Vondre Sweat (knee) and DE Joseph Ossai (ankle); LB David Bailey (groin) is doubtful and RB Breece Hall (quadriceps) is questionable.
FACTBraelon Allen had 17 carries and 7 targets on 78% of the snaps in Week 7.
READNew York's front is missing three players and the model charges it a generic amount for that. It points against my own side, and the edge is too small to argue with.
CLE @ PIT
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model PIT by 3.9 line PIT -3.5 PIT -3.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTPittsburgh ruled out CB Doneiko Slaughter (hamstring) and CB Brandin Echols (hamstring); WR Ben Skowronek (calf) is questionable.
FACTCleveland's RT Tytus Howard (concussion) did not practise Wednesday and is questionable, along with CB Myles Harden (hamstring) and S Daniel Thomas (ankle).
FACTDeshaun Watson threw for 308 yards in Cleveland's 27-24 win at Tennessee in Week 7.
READTwo Steelers cornerbacks out is the biggest piece of news here and it cuts against my side. At four tenths of a point, the side is not worth defending.
ATL @ TB
Sun 10:00 AM PT
model ATL by 0.2 line TB -2.5 ATL +2.5 — edge 2.7
FACTThe sheet filed Wednesday doubled this game. On Saturday's numbers the Rams game edges it out of the top two, so the double here is the sheet's, not today's.
FACTTampa Bay ruled out WR Emeka Egbuka (foot); RB Kenny Gainwell (hip) and RT Luke Goedeke (calf) are questionable. Baker Mayfield has no designation after a full Wednesday practice; he says he is deciding day by day whether to wear a protective glove.
FACTAtlanta ruled out RB Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring); WR Olamide Zaccheaus (shoulder) and LB Divine Deablo (forearm) are questionable. Bijan Robinson had 20 carries and 5 targets on 81% of the snaps in Week 7.
READThe model likes the road team to win outright, which is a stronger claim than the line suggests. Egbuka being out supports it; Tampa Bay's 43-13 win over Carolina last week does not.
LAC @ LA
Sun 1:05 PM PT
model LA by 9.7 line LA -6.5 LA -6.5 — DOUBLE, biggest gap on the board
FACTThe Chargers ruled out S Derwin James Jr. (hamstring), CB Deane Leonard (concussion), G Kayode Awosika (lower leg) and WR Brenen Thompson (quadriceps/hamstring). CB Donte Jackson (hamstring) is questionable.
FACTThe Rams' CB Trent McDuffie (groin), TE Colby Parkinson (ribs) and C Coleman Shelton are questionable. Puka Nacua has no designation and drew 10 targets in Week 7.
FACTThe Chargers are coming off a bye after losing 22-6 to Kansas City in Week 6.
READThe news lines up with the model for once. James and Leonard out leaves the Chargers' secondary thin against Nacua. The caution is the size: the model is asking the Rams to win by ten.
KC @ DEN
Sun 1:25 PM PT
model KC by 0.8 line KC -1.5 DEN +1.5 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTDenver ruled out S Talanoa Hufanga (ankle) and RB RJ Harvey (knee). DE Zach Allen (hamstring), S Brandon Jones (hamstring), WR Jaylen Waddle (chest) and OT Garett Bolles are questionable.
FACTKansas City CBs L'Jarius Sneed (knee) and Mansoor Delane (shoulder) are questionable. Patrick Mahomes has no designation; Kansas City lost 20-3 at Seattle in Week 7.
READDenver has the longer injury list and the model has the home side. Seven tenths is not an opinion.
NE @ MIA
Sun 1:25 PM PT
model NE by 7.6 line NE -7 NE -7 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTNew England WR A.J. Brown (ankle/knee), RB TreVeyon Henderson (illness), CB Carlton Davis III (neck) and LB Christian Elliss (chest) are questionable.
FACTMiami ruled out OT Kadyn Proctor (concussion); CBs Reese Taylor (quadriceps) and JuJu Brents (neck/concussion) are questionable. Malik Willis has no designation after a three-touchdown game against the Jets.
READBoth teams are waiting on Sunday-morning names, and a seven-point line with six tenths of model edge is the definition of no opinion.
PHI @ WAS
Sun 5:20 PM PT
model WAS by 6.9 line WAS -6 WAS -6 — coin flip, no opinion
FACTThe schedule feed still lists Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia. ESPN has Hurts on injured reserve, and Tanner McKee started Week 7. This number is re-run with McKee; with Hurts the model had Washington by only 3.9 and was on Philadelphia.
FACTThe sheet filed Wednesday was rebuilt with McKee and has WAS -5.5. Saturday's re-run keeps the same side.
FACTPhiladelphia ruled out WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) and Britain Covey (knee), LB Jihaad Campbell and CB Jonathan Jones. Makai Lemon drew 8 targets on 91% of the snaps in Week 7. Saquon Barkley has no designation after playing 15% of the snaps in his return.
FACTWashington ruled out DTs Daron Payne (foot) and Javon Kinlaw (knee). Jayden Daniels started Washington's last game before the bye and has no designation.
READThe correction matters more than the pick. A model that reads the wrong quarterback produces a confident number on the wrong side, and that is the failure these notes exist to catch. On the right quarterback the edge is under a point.
CHI @ SEA
Mon 5:15 PM PT
model SEA by 4.7 line SEA -3 SEA -3 — edge 1.7, inside the model's error bar
FACTSam Darnold has no designation; backup Drew Lock (elbow) is questionable. Seattle's RB Zach Charbonnet (knee) and WR Rashid Shaheed (knee) are questionable. Emanuel Wilson had 24 carries in Week 7.
FACTChicago ruled out S Anthony Johnson Jr.; TE Colston Loveland (neck) and RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) are questionable. Loveland drew 12 targets in Week 7.
READSeattle beat Kansas City 20-3 last week and the model has them by more than the market does. Loveland is the name to watch, because he was Chicago's target leader.