Against the spread, each pick graded on the line it was filed at (the DraftKings spread on the sheet when the card was saved). 1 point per cover, 2 for a double, pushes void. Jonathan leads by 2. Updated Wed Oct 28, 10:55 AM PT.
| Week | Jonathan | Pts | Model | Pts | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 6-7 | 8 | 3-10 | 4 | |
| Week 2 | 8-8 | 9 | 9-7 | 9 | |
| Week 3 | 7-9 | 7 | 10-6 | 12 | |
| Week 4 | 10-6 | 10 | 12-3-1 | 14 | |
| Week 5 | 6-9 | 7 | 6-9 | 8 | |
| Week 6 | 8-6 | 9 | 5-9 | 5 | |
| Week 7 | 6-7-1 | 7 | 3-9-1 | 3 | |
| Season | 51-52-1 | 57 | 48-53-2 | 55 |
The model's record is the product being measured, not an edge claim: it has trailed the closing line on margin error every week.
Jonathan 6-7, 8 pts · Model 3-10, 4 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@PIT | 13-20 | PIT -6.0 | W +1 | PIT -6.0 | W +1 |
| BAL@IND | 41-23 | BAL -3.5 ×2 | W +2 | IND +3.5 | L |
| BUF@HOU | 36-31 | HOU +1.5 | L | HOU +1.5 | L |
| CHI@CAR | 59-37 | CHI -3.0 | W +1 | CAR +3.0 | L |
| TB@CIN | 27-33 | CIN -3.5 | W +1 | TB +3.5 | L |
| CLE@JAX | 10-34 | JAX -8.5 ×2 | W +2 | CLE +8.5 | L |
| NO@DET | 30-31 | DET -7.0 | L | DET -7.0 | L |
| NYJ@TEN | 23-10 | TEN -1.5 | L | TEN -1.5 | L |
| ARI@LAC | 26-14 | LAC -9.5 | L | ARI +9.5 ×2 | W +2 |
| GB@MIN | 22-39 | MIN -2.5 | W +1 | GB +2.5 | L |
| MIA@LV | 13-27 | MIA +3.0 | L | MIA +3.0 ×2 | L |
| WAS@PHI | 22-24 | PHI -6.0 | L | PHI -6.0 | L |
| DAL@NYG | 20-28 | DAL -3.0 | L | NYG +3.0 | W +1 |
Jonathan 8-8, 9 pts · Model 9-7, 9 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BUF | 31-41 | BUF -4.5 | W +1 | BUF -4.5 | W +1 |
| CAR@ATL | 34-3 | CAR -2.5 | W +1 | ATL +2.5 ×2 | L |
| NO@BAL | 24-17 | BAL -7.5 | L | NO +7.5 | W +1 |
| MIN@CHI | 9-3 | CHI -4.5 | L | MIN +4.5 | W +1 |
| CIN@HOU | 20-6 | HOU -3.0 | L | HOU -3.0 | L |
| PIT@NE | 3-20 | PIT +5.5 | L | NE -5.5 | W +1 |
| GB@NYJ | 20-17 | NYJ +3.5 | W +1 | GB -3.5 | L |
| CLE@TB | 23-19 | TB -8.5 | L | CLE +8.5 | W +1 |
| PHI@TEN | 24-20 | PHI -7.0 ×2 | L | TEN +7.0 | W +1 |
| JAX@DEN | 13-20 | DEN -2.5 | W +1 | JAX +2.5 ×2 | L |
| LV@LAC | 26-14 | LAC -6.5 | L | LV +6.5 | W +1 |
| SEA@ARI | 31-7 | SEA -3.5 | W +1 | SEA -3.5 | W +1 |
| WAS@DAL | 20-37 | DAL -4.5 | W +1 | WAS +4.5 | L |
| MIA@SF | 13-35 | SF -13.5 ×2 | W +2 | MIA +13.5 | L |
| IND@KC | 30-33 | KC -6.5 | L | IND +6.5 | W +1 |
| NYG@LA | 6-28 | LA -7.0 | W +1 | NYG +7.0 | L |
Jonathan 7-9, 7 pts · Model 10-6, 12 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@GB | 35-14 | ATL +4.5 | W +1 | GB -4.5 | L |
| LAC@BUF | 16-24 | BUF -7.0 | W +1 | BUF -7.0 ×2 | W +2 |
| CAR@CLE | 18-21 | CAR -2.5 | L | CAR -2.5 | L |
| NYJ@DET | 24-31 | NYJ +6.5 | L | DET -6.5 | W +1 |
| HOU@IND | 17-19 | HOU -2.5 | L | IND +2.5 | W +1 |
| NE@JAX | 6-35 | JAX -3.0 | W +1 | NE +3.0 | L |
| KC@MIA | 24-10 | KC -10.5 | W +1 | MIA +10.5 | L |
| TEN@NYG | 7-12 | TEN +2.5 | L | NYG -2.5 | W +1 |
| CIN@PIT | 27-30 | CIN -3.5 | L | PIT +3.5 | W +1 |
| SEA@WAS | 31-33 | SEA -7.0 ×2 | L | WAS +7.0 | W +1 |
| ARI@SF | 30-36 | SF -8.5 | L | SF -8.5 | L |
| MIN@TB | 23-16 | MIN -1.5 | W +1 | MIN -1.5 | W +1 |
| BAL@DAL | 34-31 | DAL +3.5 | W +1 | DAL +3.5 | W +1 |
| LV@NO | 35-27 | LV +3.0 | W +1 | NO -3.0 | L |
| LA@DEN | 26-30 | LA -2.5 | L | DEN +2.5 | W +1 |
| PHI@CHI | 7-27 | PHI -4.5 ×2 | L | CHI +4.5 ×2 | W +2 |
Jonathan 10-6, 10 pts · Model 12-3-1, 14 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@CLE | 24-27 | CLE +2.5 | W +1 | CLE +2.5 | W +1 |
| IND@WAS | 30-13 | WAS +3.5 | L | WAS +3.5 | L |
| TEN@BAL | 18-24 | BAL -11.5 | L | TEN +11.5 | W +1 |
| NE@BUF | 29-26 | BUF -7.5 | L | NE +7.0 | W +1 |
| NYJ@CHI | 12-23 | CHI -3.5 | W +1 | CHI -3.5 ×2 | W +2 |
| JAX@CIN | 22-17 | JAX +2.5 | W +1 | JAX +2.5 ×2 | W +2 |
| DAL@HOU | 34-30 | DAL +2.5 | W +1 | HOU -3.0 | L |
| ARI@NYG | 24-36 | NYG +1.5 | W +1 | NYG +2.5 | W +1 |
| LA@PHI | 24-20 | LA -2.5 | W +1 | LA -3.5 | W +1 |
| GB@TB | 17-14 | GB -3.5 | L | TB +3.5 | W +1 |
| MIA@MIN | 10-15 | MIA +11.5 | W +1 | MIA +10.5 | W +1 |
| KC@LV | 30-27 | LV +4.5 | W +1 | KC -4.5 | L |
| LAC@SEA | 23-30 | SEA -6.5 | W +1 | SEA -7.0 | P |
| DEN@SF | 14-24 | SF -2.5 | W +1 | SF -3.0 | W +1 |
| DET@CAR | 26-32 | DET -3.5 | L | CAR +3.5 | W +1 |
| ATL@NO | 45-24 | NO -2.5 ×2 | L | ATL +2.5 | W +1 |
Jonathan 6-9, 7 pts · Model 6-9, 8 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DAL | 24-16 | DAL -8.5 | L | TB +8.5 | W +1 |
| PHI@JAX | 17-19 | JAX -7.5 ×2 | L | JAX -7.5 | L |
| CHI@GB | 7-31 | CHI -2.5 | L | GB +2.5 ×2 | W +2 |
| CIN@MIA | 31-24 | CIN -6.5 | W +1 | MIA +6.5 | L |
| LV@NE | 17-45 | NE -3.5 | W +1 | NE -3.5 ×2 | W +2 |
| MIN@NO | 23-13 | MIN -2.5 | W +1 | MIN -2.5 | W +1 |
| CLE@NYJ | 12-17 | CLE +2.5 | L | CLE +2.5 | L |
| IND@PIT | 22-34 | IND +2.5 | L | IND +2.5 | L |
| HOU@TEN | 26-3 | HOU -7.5 ×2 | W +2 | TEN +7.5 | L |
| NYG@WAS | 27-27 | WAS -3.5 | L | WAS -3.5 | L |
| DEN@LAC | 23-17 | DEN -3.5 | W +1 | LAC +3.5 | L |
| DET@ARI | 45-21 | ARI +5.5 | L | ARI +5.5 | L |
| SF@SEA | 32-29 | SEA -3.0 | L | SF +3.0 | W +1 |
| BAL@ATL | 30-23 | ATL -3.0 | L | BAL +3.0 | W +1 |
| BUF@LA | 37-34 | BUF +3.0 | W +1 | LA -3.0 | L |
Jonathan 8-6, 9 pts · Model 5-9, 5 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@DEN | 14-17 | DEN +2.5 | W +1 | DEN +2.5 | W +1 |
| HOU@JAX | 34-31 | JAX -2.5 | L | JAX -2.5 | L |
| CHI@ATL | 31-23 | CHI -2.5 | W +1 | ATL +1.5 ×2 | L |
| BAL@CLE | 10-13 | CLE +4.5 | W +1 | BAL -3.0 | L |
| TEN@IND | 26-20 | IND -6.5 | L | TEN +7.0 | W +1 |
| NYJ@NE | 19-26 | NYJ +7.5 | W +1 | NE -7.5 ×2 | L |
| NO@NYG | 34-27 | NYG +1.5 | L | NYG +1.5 | L |
| CAR@PHI | 25-14 | CAR +1.5 | W +1 | CAR -3.0 | W +1 |
| PIT@TB | 26-19 | PIT -2.5 | W +1 | TB +2.5 | L |
| ARI@LA | 18-16 | ARI +12.5 | W +1 | ARI +12.5 | W +1 |
| LAC@KC | 6-22 | LAC +8.5 | L | LAC +7.5 | L |
| BUF@LV | 33-30 | BUF -5.5 | L | BUF -5.5 | L |
| DAL@GB | 13-23 | DAL +1.5 ×2 | L | GB -1.5 | W +1 |
| WAS@SF | 17-23 | WAS +7.5 ×2 | W +2 | SF -7.5 | L |
Jonathan 6-7-1, 7 pts · Model 3-9-1, 3 pts
| Game | Final | Jonathan | Model | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@NO | 16-10 | PIT -3.0 | W +1 | NO +3.0 | L |
| SF@ATL | 20-29 | ATL +2.5 ×2 | W +2 | SF -2.5 | L |
| CIN@BAL | 35-13 | BAL +1.5 | L | BAL +1.5 | L |
| TB@CAR | 43-13 | CAR -3.0 | L | CAR -3.0 ×2 | L |
| NYG@HOU | 27-21 | HOU -10.0 | L | NYG +10.0 | W +1 |
| IND@MIN | 10-16 | MIN -6.5 ×2 | L | MIN -6.5 | L |
| MIA@NYJ | 28-25 | MIA +4.5 | W +1 | MIA +4.5 | W +1 |
| CLE@TEN | 27-24 | CLE -2.5 | W +1 | TEN +2.5 | L |
| DEN@ARI | 30-16 | ARI +4.5 | L | ARI +4.5 | L |
| GB@DET | 17-20 | DET -3.0 | P | DET -3.0 | P |
| LA@LV | 35-21 | LV +3.0 | L | LA -3.0 | W +1 |
| KC@SEA | 3-20 | KC +3.0 | L | KC +3.0 | L |
| DAL@PHI | 38-21 | DAL -4.5 | W +1 | PHI +4.5 ×2 | L |
| NE@CHI | 24-30 | CHI -3.0 | W +1 |